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Climate change and land-use legacies have caused a shift in wildfires and post-fire growing conditions. These changes have strong potential to diminish the resilience of many ecosystems, with cascading effects and feedbacks across taxa. Piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands are a diverse and widespread forest type in the western US and are home to many obligate and semi-obligate bird species. As such, this system is ideal for understanding wildfire resilience, or lack thereof, in terms of both vegetation and wildlife associations. This study evaluated post-fire vegetation structure and associated avian communities following three wildfires; one that burned one year prior to sampling (recent fire), and two that burned approximately 25 years previously (old fires). Vegetation characteristics and the habitat use of PJ-associated bird species were compared across severely burned patches, unburned refugia, and unburned sites outside of the burn perimeter. We expected wildfire to alter vegetation and bird usage for the first few years post-fire, which we observed in our recent burns. However, even 25-years post-fire, little recovery to PJ woodland had occurred and the associated bird communities had not returned, compared to unburned areas. No piñon regeneration was observed in any burned areas and no juniper regeneration in the recent fire. Piñon seedling densities in unburned sites and refugia averaged 80 ha−1 and 151 ha−1, respectively, while juniper seedling densities were 220 ha−1 in both habitat types. Habitat use for thirteen PJ-associated species were modeled, three of which (Woodhouse’s Scrub Jay, Ash-throated Flycatcher, and Virginia’s Warbler) used all habitats. Four species (American Robin, Gray Vireo, Black-throated Gray Warbler, and Gray Flycatcher) were essentially absent from the old burn habitat, reflecting species-specific need for mature piñon or juniper trees and/or greater canopy cover. Conversely, birds that were present in the old burn habitat (including Virginia’s Warbler, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, Woodhouse’s Scrub-jay, Ash-throated Flycatcher, and Spotted Towhee) are typically associated with habitat edges, high shrub cover, or cavity nests. Altered vegetation structure and bird habitat use in burned areas 25 years post-fire are evidence for enduring conversion to non-forest vegetation types. However, unburned refugia embedded in burned areas maintain forest attributes and support obligate bird communities, supporting ecological function and biological diversity. 

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance. 

Abstract The distribution and abundance of plants across the world depends in part on their ability to move, which is commonly characterized by a dispersal kernel. For seeds, the total dispersal kernel (TDK) describes the combined influence of all primary, secondary and higher-order dispersal vectors on the overall dispersal kernel for a plant individual, population, species or community. Understanding the role of each vector within the TDK, and their combined influence on the TDK, is critically important for being able to predict plant responses to a changing biotic or abiotic environment. In addition, fully characterizing the TDK by including all vectors may affect predictions of population spread. Here, we review existing research on the TDK and discuss advances in empirical, conceptual modelling and statistical approaches that will facilitate broader application. The concept is simple, but few examples of well-characterized TDKs exist. We find that significant empirical challenges exist, as many studies do not account for all dispersal vectors (e.g. gravity, higher-order dispersal vectors), inadequately measure or estimate long-distance dispersal resulting from multiple vectors and/or neglect spatial heterogeneity and context dependence. Existing mathematical and conceptual modelling approaches and statistical methods allow fitting individual dispersal kernels and combining them to form a TDK; these will perform best if robust prior information is available. We recommend a modelling cycle to parameterize TDKs, where empirical data inform models, which in turn inform additional data collection. Finally, we recommend that the TDK concept be extended to account for not only where seeds land, but also how that location affects the likelihood of establishing and producing a reproductive adult, i.e. the total effective dispersal kernel. 

Abstract Although dispersal is generally viewed as a crucial determinant for the fitness of any organism, our understanding of its role in the persistence and spread of plant populations remains incomplete. Generalizing and predicting dispersal processes are challenging due to context dependence of seed dispersal, environmental heterogeneity and interdependent processes occurring over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Current population models often use simple phenomenological descriptions of dispersal processes, limiting their ability to examine the role of population persistence and spread, especially under global change. To move seed dispersal ecology forward, we need to evaluate the impact of any single seed dispersal event within the full spatial and temporal context of a plant’s life history and environmental variability that ultimately influences a population’s ability to persist and spread. In this perspective, we provide guidance on integrating empirical and theoretical approaches that account for the context dependency of seed dispersal to improve our ability to generalize and predict the consequences of dispersal, and its anthropogenic alteration, across systems. We synthesize suitable theoretical frameworks for this work and discuss concepts, approaches and available data from diverse subdisciplines to help operationalize concepts, highlight recent breakthroughs across research areas and discuss ongoing challenges and open questions. We address knowledge gaps in the movement ecology of seeds and the integration of dispersal and demography that could benefit from such a synthesis. With an interdisciplinary perspective, we will be able to better understand how global change will impact seed dispersal processes, and potential cascading effects on plant population persistence, spread and biodiversity. 

Abstract Seed dispersal enables plants to reach hospitable germination sites and escape natural enemies. Understanding when and how much seed dispersal matters to plant fitness is critical for understanding plant population and community dynamics. At the same time, the complexity of factors that determine if a seed will be successfully dispersed and subsequently develop into a reproductive plant is daunting. Quantifying all factors that may influence seed dispersal effectiveness for any potential seed-vector relationship would require an unrealistically large amount of time, materials and financial resources. On the other hand, being able to make dispersal predictions is critical for predicting whether single species and entire ecosystems will be resilient to global change. Building on current frameworks, we here posit that seed dispersal ecology should adopt plant functional groups as analytical units to reduce this complexity to manageable levels. Functional groups can be used to distinguish, for their constituent species, whether it matters (i) if seeds are dispersed, (ii) into what context they are dispersed and (iii) what vectors disperse them. To avoid overgeneralization, we propose that the utility of these functional groups may be assessed by generating predictions based on the groups and then testing those predictions against species-specific data. We suggest that data collection and analysis can then be guided by robust functional group definitions. Generalizing across similar species in this way could help us to better understand the population and community dynamics of plants and tackle the complexity of seed dispersal as well as its disruption.